Unusual stroke of good luck could help Arsenal win the league

Yesterday's defeat at Stoke may have given Chelsea an excellent chance of winning one of the world's most famous cup competitions - indeed, a tournament nearly as old as most of their squad - but it has given us a massive opportunity in the league. Like a kindly Russian oligarch dishing out billions of dollars of his own money to associates, asking only for the odd 'political favour' in return, the fixture list has been rather generous to us this season.

With a ten point gap developing between the top teams and the best of the rest, the title chase is currently looking like a three-horse race, although there is still time for that to change. So while the suitors of fourth place (currently Tottenham, Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa) knock on the Champions League's door in anticipation of the big August Qualifier Ball - jostling in their tuxes, clawing flowerheads out of their rivals' bouquets and trying to ruin each other's painstakingly waxed hairstyles - the top three are taking it in turns to edge a point clear for a few days and borrow the plaudits.

Chelsea are looking like the team to beat, although a new defensive fragility seems to be creeping into the team; meanwhile, Manchester United's form has so far been about as consistent as Rio Ferdinand's career priorities. We've been on blinding form in the league since that 3-0 home defeat to Chelsea back in November and are currently in the ascendancy; and the big clashes over the next three weeks are likely to shape the rest of our title challenge.

So to keep us all in good spirits before our trip to Aston Villa on Wednesday, here are a few reasons why we can finally win this thing again.

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Extra Domestic Fixtures

Arsenal have sixteen remaining league fixtures, and no other domestic games.

Manchester United have fifteen remaining league fixtures (seven home, eight away), and play City in the League Cup semi-final second leg on Wednesday, which makes it sixteen. With home advantage and an away goal, they have a good chance of reaching the final, which would give them one extra match - and to Sir Alex, an important one for which he would prepare carefully and rest players. Not exactly a massive difference, but I'd imagine they'll have so much injury time along the way that United's energetic, highly motivated workhorse Dimitar Berbatov might devolve into a dawdling, lethargic goal hanger.

Chelsea, on the other hand, may have several more matches to play. They have seventeen remaining league fixtures (eight home, nine away), and play Cardiff at home in the FA Cup fifth round. With Arsenal, United, Liverpool, and Everton all out, they have a huge opportunity to reach the final. This would mean three extra matches (four on the off-chance that Cardiff hold them to a draw and force a replay), meaning there's a good possibility that they will play four more domestic games than Arsenal. As with United's Carling Cup tie(s), they will be taking these seriously, and the likes of Michael Ballack might need the odd nap. If they can avoid another FA Cup giant-killing, Chelsea's fixture list in the closing stages of the season could be nearly as busy as their transfer activity this summer... oh, sorry.

'Big Four' Games

Arsenal will have a considerable advantage if they're still in the title race towards the end of the season, in that they will have faced the rest of the 'Big Four' by mid-February. If anything goes wrong, they should have plenty of time to make up lost ground.

This series of fixtures will also coincide with some injury returns. Sagna and Bendtner should be back in time for Aston Villa, and Diaby should be ready for United.

As for our rivals, United play Liverpool in late March, while Chelsea travel to Anfield on May 1st. They face each other on April 3rd. These fixtures will not only come at the critical stage of the league season, but may cause problems for them if they need to rest players before or after Champions League ties.

The Run-in - Last Seven Matches

The scheduled run-in is slightly in Arsenal's favour, and could be particularly damaging to Chelsea.

Arsenal:
Birmingham (away)
Wolves (home)
Tottenham (away)
Wigan (away)
Manchester City (home)
Blackburn (away)
Fulham (home)

Chelsea:
Aston Villa (home)
Manchester United (away)
Bolton (home)
Tottenham (away)
Stoke (home)
Liverpool (away)
Wigan (home)

Manchester United:
Bolton (away)
Chelsea (home)
Blackburn (away)
Manchester City (away)
Tottenham (home)
Sunderland (away)
Stoke (home)


League Form:

Finally, a quick note about recent league form. Keep in mind that in their last eight league fixtures, each team has played against two top-seven teams:

Arsenal:
WWDWWWDW (4 points dropped)

Chelsea:
WWDDWDLW (9 points dropped)

Manchester United:
WWDWWLWL (8 points dropped)

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Obviously, the fixture list isn't exactly the be-all and end-all of the title race, but Arsenal have usually been unlucky with the scheduling and this could be hugely helpful. With only two tournaments to focus on compared to the three pursued by both Manchester United and Chelsea, we have less distractions and fewer opportunities for injuries - although, admittedly, Theo can always find a way. Of course the Champions League could change all this, but our exit from both domestic cups means we're at less risk of spreading ourselves thin than our rivals are.

With the best recent form, and the best run-in on paper, we're in a great position. And if we emerge from the next four games with eight or nine points, we really can pull it off.